Brittle then broken

Australia has a batting problem.

In a 2007/08 season that dawned with the first T20 world cup, Simon Katich made 1506 Sheffield Shield runs at 94.12, Phillip Hughes averaged 62.11 for NSW, and Brad Hodge made an unbeaten 286 against Queensland.

Of the Shield’s top 20 run-scorers, 15 posted averages above 40, including Chris Rogers (744 runs at 43.76), George Bailey (734 at 43.17) and Andrew McDonald (545 at 49.54).

None of the competition’s top 20 run-scorers averaged below 30.

Nor did they in the following season. Or the one after that. Or after that.

Ten years later, in 2017/18, six of the top 20 run-scorers averaged in the 20s.

This year, three of the top 20 run scorers average in the 20s. Twelve average in the 30s. And just five are above the accepted mark of a Test-worthy batsman – 40.

The numbers tell the story -- Australia’s batting is in decline.

And has been for some time.

(I’ve gone hard early with the stats – sorry about that – so I’ve bunged the numbers in a table for you to ignore at your leisure.)

Yes, yes, we know the wickets are spicier and the ball is harder. The players tell us so, and their pronouncements have been embraced as dogma by elements of the media.

“I think the biggest change over the time I’ve been playing is probably the wickets,” Jackson Bird told ABC Grandstand on the occasion of his 100^th Shield match last month.

“Gone are the days when guys are going to score 1000 runs in a season.

“The wickets around the country are very fast-bowler friendly.

“It’s probably a reason why I am still playing, because every wicket nips around and it’s hard for the batters.”

Bird says the modest returns are not the batsmen’s fault.

“You see a lot of commentary around guys getting picked for Test cricket that average high 30s instead of averaging 50 like they did back in the day, and people question whether the Sheffield Shield is as strong as it used to be.

“And I think it definitely is. But I just think over the last five or six years the conditions have changed dramatically and it’s harder for the batters to score runs.”

Then there’s the matter of the new Kookaburra ball.

“It’s got an extra layer of lacquer … so it stays harder (and) swings for longer,” Bird said.

“And you add the tricky conditions that they face nearly every game for the batters, guys averaging 36, 37, they’re actually doing really well.

“Ten years ago they probably would’ve averaged close to 50.”

Perhaps. However, the numbers would suggest the decline started earlier than five years ago.

And proponents of the ‘spicy wickets/helpful balls’ theory might be selling the bowlers short, as Australia at present is blessed with a gaggle of excellent quicks – including the veteran Bird -- and several flights of quality spinners.

And mind that, counterintuitively, the runs have declined despite the modern supercharged bats and roped off boundaries.

But whether the batting decline is a recent phenomenon, borne of pitches and ball lacquer, or a long-term trend, corresponding with the rise of T20 and a decline in application, is moot.

Because the nub of the matter is this: Picking players with Shield averages in the low-mid 30s will not win Ashes series or Border-Gavaskar trophies.

Thirty is not the new 50.

Australia shouldn’t accept the mediocre. We shouldn’t shrug our shoulders and say, oh well, he would’ve been great 10 years ago.

In any case, shouldn’t batsmen be challenged by tough conditions? Isn’t that preferable to playing on roads?

The batting malaise is discombobulating the pundits.

Analysts scouring the Shield for the Next Big Thing have come down with nasty cases of Premature Elevation.

Mackenzie Harvey was a future star, we were told. Then it was Jake Fraser-McGurk.

Now it’s Campbell Kellaway. Hopefully Kellaway doesn’t suffer the same fate as his fellow Vics, but with a 31.29 average after 42 first-class matches, the runs are yet to match the hype.

Ollie Peake is an impressive young man whose Baggy Green is apparently sitting on a shelf in Jolimont. But he’s on the sidelines after being hit in the head at the WACA last month.

Sam Konstas has the fourth most runs in the Shield … at an average of 32.83.

Nathan McSweeney is seen by some as the next in line, but a Shield average of 26.30 doesn’t demand selection for the Bangladesh series in August (McSweeney did, however, make an undefeated 226 against the England Lions in December).

Now all of the above are young enough to come again, but the nation’s need is now.

The selectors might be forced to do a Voges on us and recall the Shield’s leading run-scorer this season – Peter Handscomb (640 at 35.55).

He’s only 34, is a consistent run-maker, and an excellent slip fielder (having just broken Jamie Siddons’ Shield catches record) – they could do a lot worse.

Meanwhile, in India the Ranji Trophy concluded last week. Jammu & Kashmir has been crowned champions from Karnataka, whose 22-year-old No 5 Ravichandran Smaran unfortunately made a golden duck in the final … to leave his season tally at 950 runs at 86.36.

He could, however, console himself with the fact he pipped Delhi’s 23-year-old Ayush Doseja (949 runs at 105.44) for the leading aggregate honours by a single run. Both players made four hundreds for the season.

Each of the top five scorers in the Ranji made double hundreds this season. The competition’s top 150 run-makers totalled 193 centuries between them. (Yes, I counted.)

The portent is self-evident. Australia tours India in early 2027.

And still the runs fail to flow. Only SA posted a total north of 300 in the current round of the Shield. Tasmania was all out 91 in its first innings. NSW failed to make 250 in either innings on the batsman-friendly Karen Rolton Oval.

Marnus Labuschagne is out of (red-ball) form and has been for some time. Jake Weatherald is yet to make a hundred this season. Australia might need to find replacements for more than just the retired Usman Khwaja.

Chappell, Border, Waugh, Ponting, Clarke, Smith … who is next in the glorious line of Australian batting succession?

Australian batting is brittle if not broken. The bowlers can only bail out the batsmen so many times.

To return to where we started: Do you know what else happened in 2007/08?

Steve Smith debuted for NSW.

Goodness knows what Australia will do when he’s gone.